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The Fastener Distributor Index (FDI) for March 2025 rose to 52.6, up from 51.6 in February, signaling continued improvement in fastener market conditions. However, the Forward Looking Indicator (FLI) slipped further below 50 to 47.0, reflecting ongoing anxiety over tariffs and recession risk.
Key Findings
- FDI: 52.6 (slightly improved from 51.6 in February)
- FLI: 47.0 (below 50, signaling pessimism about near-term outlook)
- Sales above seasonal expectations: 50% of respondents — highest since March 2022
- Pricing pressure: 61% reported higher pricing vs. last month due to steel/Chinese tariffs
- Employment: 72% said staffing levels were stable month-over-month
Tariff Dominates the Conversation
Nearly all survey commentary focused on tariffs. Distributors report that after an initial inventory-stuffing rush before tariffs took effect, customers are now holding back on orders, hoping for lower tariff rates through negotiations.
“Many customers are holding on orders due to tariffs. They are waiting in hopes that countries will negotiate, and the tariffs will be lower or eliminated in the coming weeks,” one respondent noted.
Pricing increases are already flowing through: “North American pricing increases are primarily due to tariffs, not higher cost of goods,” another distributor observed.
Industry Outlook
While the current FDI suggests stable trends, the weakening FLI signals caution. The March ISM PMI reversal to 49 after two consecutive readings above 50 also suggests some slowing in momentum.
Source: Fastener News Desk